# Scale Theory (United States)

> Scale Theory is an HVAC-only lead generation agency for US HVAC contractors, run by two brothers, Sam and Alan, from Sydney, Australia, working US business hours. It books qualified homeowners onto HVAC contractors' calendars as in-home replacement estimates using Meta and Google Search ads, landing pages, a six-question qualifier, a 60-second text and call reply, and day 1, 3 and 7 estimate follow-up. One HVAC contractor per service line per metro. Scale Theory has no US office, no US staff and no US clients or case studies yet.

## Key facts
- Price: $2,500 a month (USD). Pay half to start: $3,750 on signing and $3,750 once Scale Theory has booked 3 central AC or heat pump replacement or installation estimates of $5,000 or more before sales tax into the contractor's calendar, or day 90, whichever comes first. Then month to month with 30 days notice.
- Channels included: Meta ads (Facebook and Instagram), Google Ads (Search), Google Business Profile management and automated review requests. Not included: SEO, Google Local Services Ads.
- Ad spend is paid by the contractor directly to Meta and Google, minimum $4,000 a month combined. No guarantee of results.
- Replacement first: ads lead with central AC, heat pump and AC plus furnace replacements and new installs. No ads for single repairs, window units or one-off ductless mini-split heads.
- Unit reported: booked estimates and cost per booked estimate, every Friday.
- The contractor owns the ad accounts, data and landing pages on their domain.
- Open metros: Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Phoenix, Tampa Bay, Orlando, South Florida, Metro Atlanta, Charlotte, Las Vegas.
- Contact: hello@scaletheory.com.au. Office: Level 1, 457-459 Elizabeth Street, Surry Hills NSW 2010, Australia. Calls run Monday to Friday, 8am to 6pm Central Time.

## Core pages
- [AC replacement leads: booked estimates for system replacements, not repair calls](https://scaletheorydigital.com/ac-replacement-leads/): AC replacement leads filtered by 6 questions before they reach you: central AC, heat pump and AC plus furnace changeouts, with season-by-season ad angles.
- [Facebook ads for HVAC: Meta campaigns that book system replacement estimates](https://scaletheorydigital.com/facebook-ads-for-hvac/): Facebook ads for HVAC contractors: 4 creative angles, a service area radius, a landing page with a 6-question qualifier, and Meta's share of a $4,000 budget.
- [HVAC speed to lead: a 60-second reply, booked estimates and follow-up that runs itself](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-crm-automation/): HVAC speed to lead in practice: a text and call inside 60 seconds, estimates booked on your calendar, and day 1, 3 and 7 follow-up texts in your name.
- [HVAC Google Ads: Search campaigns built to book replacement estimates](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-google-ads/): HVAC Google Ads built for replacements: 3 tight ad groups, a negative list from day one, service area targeting and booked estimates imported as conversions.
- [HVAC landing page design: one job, six questions, built on your domain](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-landing-pages/): How we build an HVAC landing page: 9 sections, a 6-question qualifier that sorts every lead before you call, a 2.5-second load target, on your own domain.
- [HVAC lead generation: shared leads, Google LSAs or your own ads?](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-lead-generation/): HVAC lead generation compared: shared marketplace leads, Google LSAs and your own ads. How each charges, who owns the lead, and a $4,000 funnel worked out.
- [The HVAC Profit Machine: our HVAC lead generation system, stage by stage](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-profit-machine/): Our HVAC lead generation system in 8 stages: replacement ads, a 6-question qualifier, a 60-second reply and booked estimates on your calendar. See every step.
- [HVAC marketing pricing: one published price, and the math behind it](https://scaletheorydigital.com/pricing/): HVAC marketing pricing in full: $2,500 a month, half of the first 90 days due after 3 booked estimates, $4,000 minimum ad spend, and a break-even formula.

## Metro pages
- [HVAC Marketing Agency in Texas: booked replacement estimates in four metros](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/texas/): Texas metros average 106 to 123 days a year at 90°F or more. How we run HVAC marketing for replacement jobs in DFW, Houston, Austin and San Antonio.
- [HVAC Marketing in Dallas-Fort Worth: replacement estimates for a two-season market](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/dallas-tx/): DFW averages 106 days a year at 90°F and 29 freezing nights. How we run HVAC marketing in Dallas-Fort Worth for AC and furnace changeouts. Territory open.
- [HVAC Marketing in Fort Worth: heat pump and AC replacements in a million-person city](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/fort-worth-tx/): Fort Worth passed 1 million people and permitted 5,887 new homes in 2025, and 68% of homes heat electrically. How we market HVAC replacements in Fort Worth.
- [HVAC Marketing in Plano: replacement estimates in a built-out city](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/plano-tx/): Plano permitted just 138 new single-family homes in 2025, and 70% of owner homes date from 1980 to 2009. How we market HVAC replacements in Plano.
- [HVAC Marketing in Frisco: the first big replacement wave in DFW's newest city](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/frisco-tx/): Frisco's median home was built in 2009 and is worth $642,100, and 54% heat with gas. How we market first-time HVAC replacements in Frisco, TX.
- [HVAC Marketing in McKinney: a growing city where winter is half the business](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/mckinney-tx/): McKinney averages 45.4 freezing nights a year, more heating than cooling degree days, and grew 20.8% since 2020. How we market HVAC replacements in McKinney.
- [HVAC Marketing in Houston: replacement estimates for the longest cooling season in Texas](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/houston-tx/): Houston's 90°F season runs May 6 to October 7 on average, with July nights near 76°F. How we run HVAC marketing for replacement jobs there. Territory open.
- [HVAC Marketing in Sugar Land: AC and furnace replacements in an owner-occupied city](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/sugar-land-tx/): 80% of Sugar Land homes are owner-occupied and 69% heat with gas. How we market AC and furnace replacements in Sugar Land, with the CenterPoint incentive.
- [HVAC Marketing in Conroe: replacement estimates on Entergy Texas lines](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/conroe-tx/): Conroe grew 33% since 2020, gets 27 freezing nights a year, and runs on Entergy Texas, which pays HVAC incentives via distributors. How we market there.
- [HVAC Marketing in Austin: replacement estimates in the hottest, fastest-growing Texas metro](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/austin-tx/): Austin averages 123 days a year at 90°F and 29 at 100°F, and Austin Energy pays $600 to $950 rebates. How we run HVAC marketing there. Territory open.
- [HVAC Marketing in Round Rock: replacement estimates on Oncor lines, not Austin Energy](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/round-rock-tx/): Round Rock grew 18.2% since 2020, half its homes heat with gas, and Austin Energy rebates do not apply there. How we market HVAC replacements in Round Rock.
- [HVAC Marketing in Georgetown, TX: replacement estimates in a city with its own electric utility](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/georgetown-tx/): Georgetown grew 58.5% since 2020, and its city-owned utility gives homeowners a free HVAC tune-up each year. How we market system replacements in Georgetown.
- [HVAC Marketing in San Antonio: heat pump and AC replacement estimates with CPS Energy rebates](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/san-antonio-tx/): 71% of San Antonio homes heat with electricity and CPS Energy pays up to $310 a ton. How we run HVAC marketing for heat pump jobs. Territory open.
- [HVAC Marketing in New Braunfels: heat pump replacements with the NBU rebate](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/new-braunfels-tx/): New Braunfels grew 35.5% since 2020, 78% of homes heat with electricity and NBU offers an HVAC rebate of up to $1,150. How we market replacements there.
- [HVAC Marketing in Phoenix: booked replacement estimates through 111 days over 100°F](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/phoenix-az/): Phoenix averages 111 days a year at 100°F or more. How we would run Meta and Google ads for AC and heat pump replacement estimates in the Valley. Open.
- [HVAC Marketing in Mesa: heat pump and AC replacement estimates in an electric-heat city](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/mesa-az/): 76.5% of Mesa homes heat with electricity and 57.3% of owner homes were built 1980 to 2009. How we would run HVAC replacement ads for a Mesa contractor.
- [HVAC Marketing in Scottsdale: high-value replacement estimates on two utility maps](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/scottsdale-az/): Scottsdale's median home value is $789,800 and it built just 369 new homes in 2025. How we would market HVAC replacements there, split by APS and SRP.
- [HVAC Marketing in Tucson: AC and furnace replacement estimates in an older desert city](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/tucson-az/): Tucson averages 157.8 days a year at 90°F, and 55.3% of city owner homes predate 1980. How we would run HVAC replacement ads in Tucson. Territory open.
- [HVAC Marketing in Tampa Bay: heat pump replacement estimates across three very different counties](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/tampa-fl/): Tampa Bay has 68% owner-occupied homes and 3,928 cooling degree days a year. How we would run ads for heat pump and AC replacement estimates. Territory open.
- [HVAC Marketing in St. Petersburg: replacement estimates in the oldest housing we cover](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/st-petersburg-fl/): 77.4% of St. Petersburg owner homes were built before 1980 and 90.5% heat with electricity. How we would market HVAC replacements in St. Pete. Open.
- [HVAC Marketing in Orlando: replacement estimates in the subdivisions that boomed 20 years ago](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/orlando-fl/): Orlando averages 110 days a year at 90°F and its 2000s subdivisions are reaching changeout age. How we would run HVAC replacement ads there. Territory open.
- [HVAC Marketing in South Florida: finding single-family replacement jobs in a condo-heavy metro](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/miami-fl/): Only 40% of South Florida homes are detached single-family. How we would run ads so a Miami HVAC contractor books replacement estimates, not condo calls.
- [HVAC Marketing in Jacksonville: heat pump replacements for a Florida metro with a real winter](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/jacksonville-fl/): Jacksonville averages 80 days at 90°F and 14 freezing nights, and 91% of homes heat with electricity. How we run heat pump replacement ads there. Open.
- [HVAC Marketing in Atlanta: two replacement seasons, one for AC and one for heat](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/atlanta-ga/): Metro Atlanta has 939,339 owner homes built 1980 to 2009 and more heating load than cooling. How we would run HVAC replacement ads in both seasons. Open.
- [HVAC Marketing in Marietta: furnace and AC replacement estimates across three power utilities](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/marietta-ga/): 60.5% of Marietta homes heat with gas and 31.5% of owner homes predate 1980. How we would run furnace and AC replacement ads for a Marietta contractor.
- [HVAC Marketing in Charlotte: heat pump replacement estimates in a two-state, two-season metro](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/charlotte-nc/): Charlotte averages 58 freezing nights and 49 days at 90°F a year, and 38% of NC homes heat with a heat pump. How we would run HVAC replacement ads there.
- [HVAC Marketing in Raleigh: heat pump and furnace replacement estimates in a cold-winter, fast-growing metro](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/raleigh-nc/): Raleigh averages 64.7 freezing nights a year and the metro permitted 11,760 homes in 2025. How we would run HVAC replacement ads in Wake and Johnston. Open.
- [HVAC Marketing in Nashville: heat pump replacements in a market that heats more than it cools](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/nashville-tn/): Nashville has 66 freezing nights a year, more heating than cooling load, and TVA rebates up to $800 on heat pumps. How we run HVAC ads there. Territory open.
- [HVAC Marketing in Las Vegas: replacement estimates in a short, brutal cooling season](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/las-vegas-nv/): Las Vegas averages 78 days a year at 100°F and 63% of owner homes were built 1980 to 2009. How we would run HVAC replacement ads in the valley. Open.
- [HVAC Marketing in Henderson: the 2000s-built homes reaching their first replacement](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/henderson-nv/): 73.2% of Henderson owner homes were built 1980 to 2009 and 70.1% heat with gas. How we would run AC and furnace replacement ads for a Henderson contractor.
- [HVAC Marketing in the Inland Empire: permitted AC and furnace replacement estimates in California's big inland metro](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/inland-empire-ca/): 71% of Inland Empire homes heat with gas and Riverside averages 100.5 days a year at 90°F. How we would run permitted HVAC replacement ads there. Open.
- [HVAC Marketing in Oklahoma City: furnace and AC replacements for a hard four-season market](https://scaletheorydigital.com/hvac-marketing/oklahoma-city-ok/): Oklahoma City has 72 freezing nights and 12.5 days at 100°F a year, and 55% of homes heat with gas. How we run ads for furnace and AC replacements. Open.

## Guides
- [The R-454B refrigerant transition: what the EPA rule means for AC replacements, and how to market them honestly](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/r454b-refrigerant-transition/): Since January 1, 2025, new residential AC and heat pump systems have had to use refrigerants with a GWP below 700, which rules out R-410A for new equipment. R-454B and R-32 are the main replacements. An EPA rule effective July 27, 2026 removed the deadline for installing R-410A systems built or imported before 2025, and existing R-410A systems can still be repaired.
- [Texas HVAC marketing: a season-by-season playbook for contractors](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/texas-hvac-marketing/): Texas HVAC marketing should follow the weather. From May to September, when DFW, Houston, Austin and San Antonio average 7 to 29 days a month at 90°F or hotter, shift more budget to Google Search to catch urgent replacements. From October to April, lean on Meta with pre-summer, heat pump and furnace plus AC changeout offers. Name local utility rebates only where you qualify.
- [How to get more central AC installation leads](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/central-ac-installation-leads/): To get more central AC installation leads, advertise full system installs and replacements, not repairs, on Google Search and Meta. Send homeowners to a service-area landing page with six qualifying questions, route only owners with an install or replacement need to your CRM, reply by text and call inside 60 seconds, and book the in-home estimate with the answers attached.
- [How to get more Google reviews for your HVAC company (without breaking Google's rules or the FTC's)](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/hvac-google-reviews/): Ask every customer, not just the happy ones, by text on the day the install is finished, with a direct review link, then send one reminder a few days later. Never offer a discount, gift or entry for a review: Google bans incentives for any review, and the FTC bans incentives tied to a positive or negative one. Do not set staff review quotas or ask customers to mention a tech by name.
- [How to get more AC replacement jobs (without buying shared leads)](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/more-ac-replacement-jobs/): To get more AC replacement jobs, stop relying on shared leads and build your own lead flow. Run Google Search for homeowners shopping now and Meta ads for owners of aging systems, send both to a landing page with a short qualifier, reply inside 60 seconds, and follow up every estimate on days 1, 3 and 7. Judge it on cost per booked estimate and jobs sold, not cost per lead.
- [How to choose an HVAC marketing agency: 12 questions to ask](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/choose-hvac-marketing-agency/): Choose an HVAC marketing agency by asking who owns the ad accounts, whether they work with competitors in your area, how leads are filtered and answered, what they report weekly, how ad spend is separated from their fee, how you can leave and what proof they have. Compare offers on all-in cost per booked estimate, not on cost per lead or the monthly fee alone.
- [How much does HVAC marketing cost in the US? (2026)](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/hvac-marketing-cost/): HVAC marketing cost has three parts: ad spend paid to the platforms, a fee to whoever runs it, and your own office time. With us, the fee is $2,500 a month and ad spend is at least $4,000 a month paid directly to Meta and Google, so about $6,500 all-in. Compare any option on all-in cost per booked estimate and per sold job, not on the monthly fee alone.
- [How HVAC companies get more booked estimates from the leads they already have](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/hvac-booked-estimates/): HVAC companies get more booked estimates by fixing the steps between the form and the calendar, not by buying more leads. Reply inside 60 seconds, qualify with a few short questions, offer two specific times instead of asking when suits them, confirm the day before and the morning of, and send your comfort advisor the answers in advance. Then track cost per booked estimate every week.
- [Heat pump installation leads: how to market heat pumps in 2026](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/heat-pump-installation-leads/): To get heat pump installation leads in 2026, stop leading with the federal tax credit: the IRS says the 25C credit is not allowed for property placed in service after December 31, 2025. Lead instead with comfort, lower running costs and a whole-system replacement, target owners of older electric-heat and AC plus furnace systems, use verified utility rebates, and run heat pump offers hardest in the shoulder and heating seasons.
- [HVAC tax credit 2026: what you can still say in your ads](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/hvac-tax-credit-2026/): There is no federal HVAC tax credit for systems installed in 2026. The IRS says the 25C Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit is not allowed for property placed in service after December 31, 2025, after the 2025 law it calls the One, Big, Beautiful Bill. Ads should drop tax credit claims for new installs and lead with state Home Energy Rebates or utility rebates only where they are live and you qualify.
- [HVAC marketing in the slow season: 5 offers that keep install crews busy](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/hvac-off-season-marketing/): In the slow season, stop selling emergency AC replacement and start selling reasons to act before the next peak: heat pump heating, AC plus furnace changeouts, maintenance agreements, pre-summer install slots and a second look at unsold summer estimates. Move budget toward Meta, keep Google running at a lower level, and never switch ads off completely.
- [HVAC lead follow-up: the 60-second reply and the day 1, 3 and 7 texts](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/hvac-lead-follow-up/): Good HVAC lead follow-up has two stages. First, reply to every new lead by text and call inside 60 seconds and keep trying until a time is booked. Second, after the in-home estimate, send three short texts in the advisor's name on days 1, 3 and 7, then a call on day 10. Everything stops the moment the homeowner books, buys, says no or replies STOP.
- [HVAC financing marketing: how to advertise payments and 0% APR without breaking the rules](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/hvac-financing-advertising/): You can advertise HVAC financing, but specific terms carry rules. Under Regulation Z, a down payment, number of payments, payment amount or finance charge in an ad triggers extra disclosures, including the APR. A deferred interest offer must say "if paid in full" and state the deadline and that interest is charged from the purchase date if the balance is not paid off. "Financing available" triggers nothing.
- [HVAC cost per lead: why it misleads, and the 3 numbers to track instead](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/hvac-cost-per-lead/): LocaliQ's 2025 benchmark puts the median Google Search cost per lead at about $128 for AC installation and repair and $129 for heating and furnaces. That number alone tells you little. Divide spend by booked estimates, then by sold jobs, and compare cost per job with the gross profit on a replacement. A $40 lead can cost more per job than a $130 one.
- [HVAC SEO vs PPC: which one gets a replacement contractor more booked estimates?](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/hvac-seo-vs-ppc/): PPC buys a place in Google results today and stops when you stop paying. SEO earns a place over months and keeps working, but nobody can promise a ranking. For a replacement-focused HVAC contractor who needs booked estimates this quarter, start with PPC and fast follow-up, then build SEO once cash flow is steady. We run PPC and do not sell SEO.
- [HVAC Google Business Profile: setup, service areas and what gets profiles suspended](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/hvac-google-business-profile/): Set up your HVAC Google Business Profile as a service-area business: hide your home or shop address if customers do not visit it, list up to 20 cities or ZIP codes within about two hours' drive, use your real business name with no keywords, and pick the fewest, most specific categories. Keep it owned by you, verified and active with photos, posts and review replies. Local Services Ads require a verified profile.
- [Google Local Services Ads for HVAC: how they work, what they cost and when to use them](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/hvac-local-services-ads/): Google Local Services Ads are pay-per-lead ads for businesses that pass Google's screening. HVAC companies must clear owner, business and service professional background checks, plus license and insurance checks. You set a weekly budget and a bid mode, and pay for valid calls, messages and bookings. Low-quality leads may be credited automatically. You cannot send the homeowner to your own page or qualify them first.
- [Google Ads for HVAC contractors: how to structure campaigns for replacement jobs](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/hvac-google-ads-campaign/): Structure Google Ads for HVAC replacement jobs by service line: one Search campaign each for AC replacement, heat pump installation and AC plus furnace changeouts. Use phrase and exact match keywords, a long negative keyword list for repair and DIY searches, location targeting set to people in your service area, a landing page with a qualifier, and conversions that count booked estimates and sold jobs, not form fills.
- [Angi, HomeAdvisor and Thumbtack vs building your own HVAC lead flow](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/angi-vs-own-hvac-leads/): Angi, HomeAdvisor and Thumbtack sell access to homeowner requests. HomeAdvisor says it sends a request to up to four pros and charges a fee per lead that varies by job size. Thumbtack charges no membership and lets you set a lead budget. Your own lead flow costs more to set up but gives you exclusive leads and assets you keep. Compare them on cost per booked estimate, not cost per lead.
- [21 HVAC marketing ideas, ranked by how fast they book replacement estimates](https://scaletheorydigital.com/blog/hvac-marketing-ideas/): The fastest HVAC marketing ideas work on demand you already have: re-contact unsold estimates, reply to every lead inside 60 seconds, text back missed calls, follow up after every estimate and ask every install for a review. Next come Google Search and Meta ads built around replacement offers. SEO, content and brand work pay off, but over months, so start them after the fast ideas are running.

## Optional
- [Full text of core pages](https://scaletheorydigital.com/llms-full.txt)
- [About the founders](https://scaletheorydigital.com/about/)
- [Book a free strategy call](https://scaletheorydigital.com/book-a-strategy-call/)
- [Scale Theory in Australia](https://scaletheory.com.au/)