How to get more AC replacement jobs (without buying shared leads)

Most HVAC owners we talk to say the same thing about replacement work: the leads are out there, they just go to somebody else. You buy a lead from a marketplace, call it back in ten minutes, and the homeowner already has two trucks booked for tomorrow.

This post is how we would get more AC replacement jobs for a contractor without leaning on shared leads. It covers who to target, where the demand comes from, what to put in front of homeowners, and the math that tells you whether it is working. The funnel numbers are planning assumptions, clearly labeled. We are new to the US market and have no US client results to show you yet, so we will not pretend otherwise.

How do you get more AC replacement jobs?

Build a lead flow you own. Run Google Search ads for homeowners searching for a new system now, and Meta ads for owners of aging systems who have not started looking. Send both to a landing page with a short qualifier, reply inside 60 seconds, book an in-home estimate, and follow up every estimate on days 1, 3 and 7.

Each step fixes a different leak:

1. The right homeowner. An owner, not a renter, in a single-family home, with a system old enough to replace.
2. The right offer. A full system replacement or new install, not a $79 tune-up.
3. The right filter. Six questions before anyone reaches your calendar.
4. The right speed. A text and a call inside a minute, while they are still on their phone.
5. The right follow-up. Three texts after the estimate, in your company's name.

A booked estimate is a qualified homeowner booked for an in-home estimate on your calendar, at a set time. It is the number this whole post runs on, because it is the last step marketing controls before your comfort advisor takes over.

Why do shared leads rarely turn into replacement jobs?

Shared leads go to more than one contractor, and you pay when you receive or access the lead, not when you win the job. On a replacement worth thousands of dollars, the homeowner compares several estimates, and the first truck in the driveway usually sets the price everyone else has to beat.

This is how the big marketplaces describe their own pricing, as reported by the field service software company Housecall Pro:

• Angi: reported rates of "$15 to $85 per lead," plus a membership fee of about $300 a year. Housecall Pro notes that "because homeowners are shown multiple options, you're almost always competing for the same job," and that you pay even if another contractor wins (Housecall Pro on Angi).
• Thumbtack: pros "report costs ranging from $10 to over $100 depending on trade, job size, and market," and "you're charged when you access or are matched with a lead, not when you win the job" (Housecall Pro on Thumbtack).

Those lead prices look cheap next to a Google click. The problem is what happens after. A shared lead is a race, the homeowner may be shopping for a repair, and you have no control over what the form asked. If you buy them, track cost per sold job by source for 60 days. That number, not the lead price, tells you what they really cost. We go deeper in Angi, HomeAdvisor and Thumbtack vs building your own HVAC lead flow.

Where do AC replacement buyers actually come from?

Replacement buyers come from five places: your own customers and membership base, Google Search, Meta ads, Google Local Services Ads and shared marketplaces. They differ on intent, on whether anyone else gets the same lead, and on who owns the data when you stop paying.

Local Services Ads are a real channel. Google says "you pay for valid leads," which include answered calls, messages and booking requests, and that low-quality leads "may be issued credits automatically" (Google Local Services Help). We do not run them for clients. If you already run them, keep them and compare their cost per sold job against everything else.

Your own customer list is the cheapest source you have. Every maintenance member with a system over 12 to 15 years old is a replacement conversation waiting to happen. Most contractors never send that list a single replacement offer.

Which homeowners are most likely to replace their AC?

Owners of single-family homes with a system that is old, noisy or failing, in a hot market. The home's age is a useful stand-in: a house built in the 1980s, 1990s or 2000s is likely on its second or third system. Renters, condos and new-build owners are poor targets for replacement ads.

Take Dallas-Fort Worth as an example. Census data shows 1,808,257 owner-occupied homes in the metro in 2024, and 815,858 of them were built between 1980 and 2009 (ACS 2024 1-year, tables B25003 and B25036). DFW Airport averages about 106 days a year at 90°F or hotter, including about 20 days at 100°F or more (NOAA climate normals). That is a lot of systems working hard in homes old enough to need one. The Dallas HVAC marketing page covers that market in detail.

How we point ads at those homeowners:

• Google: replacement and install search terms only, with negative keywords for repair, parts, jobs and DIY searches.
• Meta: ads that speak to the problem the owner of an older system feels: high summer bills, a unit that runs all day, a tech who said "you'll need a new one soon."
• Landing page: a question that asks if they own or rent, and one that asks the age of the current system.

What offer should an AC replacement ad lead with?

Lead with the result the homeowner wants and a low-risk next step: a free in-home estimate, clear financing options, and a date you can install by. Skip the headline price. A changeout depends on tonnage, efficiency, ductwork and the house, so a single number attracts bargain hunters or sets the wrong expectation.

Offers that tend to suit replacement buyers:

• Free in-home replacement estimate with a written option sheet (good, better, best).
• Financing with a monthly payment shown as "from," if your lender allows it.
• Install-by date, such as "installed before the next heat wave, or we tell you on the day of the estimate."
• Old system haul-away and permit included, if you do those anyway.

We avoid "free AC check" and "$89 tune-up" as the lead offer. They fill the calendar with service calls that tie up your techs and rarely turn into a changeout. Those offers have a place in the shoulder season, as part of what we call Off-Peak Fill, but not as the main replacement ad.

How fast should you reply to a replacement lead?

Inside 60 seconds, by text and by phone. The homeowner filled out the form on their phone, often while looking at other contractors. The first company to have a real conversation usually gets the first estimate slot, and the first estimate often sets the terms everyone else works against.

A 60-second reply is hard to do with a CSR who is also dispatching trucks. So we use an AI receptionist to text and call immediately, with a virtual assistant behind it to handle anything it cannot. The homeowner gets booked on your calendar, and your comfort advisor sees all six qualifier answers before arriving: home type, current system and age, replacement or new install or repair, timing, budget range, and whether they own the home.

If you do nothing else from this post, measure how long your team takes to call new leads back. Most owners are surprised by the answer. We set out the full reply and follow-up sequence in HVAC lead follow-up: the 60-second reply and the day 1, 3 and 7 texts.

How do you turn more estimates into sold jobs?

Follow up every estimate on days 1, 3 and 7, in your company's name, until the homeowner says yes or no. Many replacement estimates are not lost to a competitor. They go quiet because the homeowner is comparing, waiting for a spouse, or checking financing, and nobody follows up.

A simple sequence:

• Day 1: "Thanks for having us out yesterday. Any questions on the options Mike left you?"
• Day 3: a short answer to the most common objection, often financing or install timing.
• Day 7: a direct question: "Should we hold a spot on the install calendar, or would you like us to close this out?"

The day 7 text gets you a clear answer, and a clear no is still useful. Lost estimates with a reason ("price," "went with a cheaper repair," "moving") tell you which part of the process to fix. We cover more of this in how HVAC companies get more booked estimates from the leads they already have.

How many AC replacement jobs can $4,000 a month in ads produce?

Under our planning assumptions, $4,000 a month of combined Meta and Google spend produces about 35 leads, 21 qualified, 12 to 13 booked estimates and 3 to 4 sold jobs at a 30% close rate. These are planning numbers to replace with your real data after the first month, not results.

The $3,500 is an illustration, not a market figure. Put your own gross profit per changeout in its place. The same math also shows where the biggest gains are. Lifting the close rate from 30% to 40% turns 12.5 booked estimates into 5 jobs instead of 3 to 4, with no extra ad spend. That is why reply speed and follow-up come before a bigger budget.

In the hottest months, when people search because a system quit, we flip the split to Google $2,500 and Meta $1,500. In Texas and much of the Sun Belt that is roughly May to September.

What should you track every week?

Track five numbers by channel: ad spend, qualified leads, booked estimates, cost per booked estimate and jobs sold. Cost per lead on its own misleads, because a cheap lead that never books is not cheap. Jobs sold by channel is what tells you where the next dollar goes.

Our clients get these in a Friday report. You can run the same report in a spreadsheet:

1. Ad spend by channel, from Meta and Google.
2. Qualified leads, meaning they passed the qualifier.
3. Booked estimates, with a time on the calendar.
4. Cost per booked estimate = ad spend / booked estimates.
5. Jobs sold, and the estimate value of each.

What does it take to start?

You need a replacement offer, enough owner-occupied homes in your service area, crews with room for more installs, and a fast reply, from your office or a system. Ad spend of at least $4,000 a month keeps both channels learning. Everything runs in your own Meta and Google accounts, so it stays with you if you leave.

We take one HVAC contractor per service line per metro area, first come. Our founders are based in Sydney, Australia, and we work US business hours remotely, including Central Time for Texas. There is no US office, and we will not pretend there is.

The full system, from the ads to the Friday report, is laid out on our AC replacement leads page.

Sam

Co-founder. Audits, strategy and media buying

Sam runs every strategy call and buys every ad. Before going HVAC-only, he ran a performance marketing agency: SEO, Meta and Google ads, CRM automation.

More about Sam