Dallas-Fort Worth is the Texas metro where HVAC is a twelve-month business. Summers run past 100°F, winters bring hard freezes, and the metro mixes 1970s homes in Dallas County with 2000s homes in Collin and Denton. For a replacement-first contractor, that means two offers and two maps. Here is how we would set it up.
Why is HVAC marketing in Dallas-Fort Worth different?
Because DFW sells cooling and heating. NOAA normals for DFW Airport show 106 days a year at 90°F or more and 29 nights at or below freezing, with 2,824 cooling degree days against 2,220 heating degree days. No other big Texas metro has that much winter, so the ad plan cannot go quiet after September.
Winter is not theoretical here. The National Weather Service recorded -2°F at DFW Airport on February 16, 2021, and 139 straight hours at or below freezing from February 13 to 19. Homeowners who lived through that ask about heating when they replace a system. The landing page answers it before your comfort advisor has to.
What housing do DFW contractors work in?
Two different housing stocks. Census data for 2024 puts the median year built at 1984 in Dallas County, where 53% of owner-occupied homes date from before 1980. In Collin and Denton counties the median is 2005. The core is on its second or third system. The north is reaching its first replacement.
| Census ACS 2024 | Owner-occupied share | Median year built | Median home value | Heated by utility gas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFW metro | 60.0% | 1996 | $389,500 | 37.3% |
| Dallas County | 50.2% | 1984 | $330,500 | 37.3% |
| Tarrant County | 59.0% | 1993 | $351,900 | 33.8% |
| Collin County | 64.4% | 2005 | $543,800 | 47.7% |
| Denton County | 66.7% | 2005 | $473,500 | 45.5% |
The metro has 1,808,257 owner-occupied homes, and 815,858 of them were built between 1980 and 2009. That is the core of the replacement market. Gas heat is common, especially in Collin County, so many jobs here are AC plus furnace changeouts rather than straight heat pump swaps.
Where is Dallas-Fort Worth growing?
North and east. Census estimates put the metro at 8,477,157 people in 2025, up 11.0% since 2020. Collin County grew 21.7% and Denton County 18.0%. Smaller counties grew faster: Kaufman 44.0% and Rockwall 30.5%. Frisco (+18.2%), McKinney (+20.8%) and Denton (+21.1%) led the big cities.
Growth brings new-build homes, and 39,790 single-family homes were permitted across the metro in 2025. New homes are not replacement jobs yet. They matter in two ways: they add owners to the Meta audience, and the homes built from 1980 to 2009 in the same corridors are likely on an original or second system. The qualifier's system-age question tells us which.
How does the DFW electricity market affect HVAC ads?
It removes the rebate hook. Oncor says it delivers power to more than 4.1 million homes and businesses, including Dallas, Fort Worth and the surrounding suburbs, but it does not generate power or bill customers. Homeowners buy from a retail electric provider. There is no single utility bill or rebate to build an ad around.
Oncor runs Take A Load Off Texas efficiency programs. We could not verify a current residential HVAC rebate amount there, so DFW ads sell the replacement on its own: a free in-home estimate, a dated install slot and financing if you offer it. We never promise a bill saving in an ad.
How would we run Meta and Google in DFW?
Google-heavy from May to September, Meta-heavy the rest of the year, with two different offers. Summer ads sell central AC and heat pump replacement. Winter ads sell furnace plus AC changeouts and heat pump conversions. Every lead goes through the same six-question qualifier before it reaches your calendar.
What changes in DFW:
- Two maps. Meta targeting is built around the cities your trucks cover. A typical set: north (Plano, Frisco, McKinney, Allen, Richardson), Tarrant (Fort Worth, Arlington, Keller, Mansfield), mid-cities (Irving, Grand Prairie) and east (Garland, Rockwall).
- Age-matched creative. Dallas County ads talk to owners of older homes about full system replacement and ductwork. North-corridor ads talk to owners of 15 to 25 year old systems about replacing before the first 100°F week.
- Qualifier weight on system type. The "current system" question separates gas furnace homes from heat pump homes, so your comfort advisor arrives with the right equipment in mind.
- City-level search terms. Google bids on replacement terms with city names, such as "AC replacement Frisco", and excludes parts, DIY and job-seeker searches.
The channel logic is on our Google Ads for HVAC and Facebook ads for HVAC pages.
What does the DFW season calendar look like?
| Month | Days at 90°F or more (NOAA normal) | Ad split | Offer focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0.0 | Meta $2,500 / Google $1,500 | Furnace plus AC changeouts, heat pump conversions |
| February and March | 0.1 each | Meta-heavy | Pre-summer booking, maintenance agreements |
| April | 0.7 | Meta-heavy | Replace before summer, financing |
| May | 6.9 | Google $2,500 / Meta $1,500 | Central AC and heat pump replacement |
| June to August | 22.3, 28.7, 27.6 | Google-heavy | Replacement, fast install dates |
| September | 16.2 | Google-heavy | Replacement, end-of-season install slots |
| October to December | 3.6, 0.1, 0.0 | Meta-heavy | Heating checks turning into system replacement |
DFW also averages 10.6 freezing nights in January and 8.1 in December, which is why winter offers work here better than anywhere else in Texas.
Worked example: a DFW January at minimum spend (planning assumptions, not results)
Off-peak split: Meta $2,500 + Google $1,500 = $4,000 ad spend
$4,000 ÷ $100 to $130 assumed blended cost per lead = about 35 leads
35 × 60% pass the qualifier = about 21. 21 × 60% book = about 12 to 13 booked estimates
12.5 × 30% close = about 3 to 4 furnace plus AC or heat pump jobs
About $320 ad cost per booked estimate. About $520 all-in with the $2,500 fee
Break-even jobs = ($2,500 + $4,000) ÷ your gross profit per replacement
These are planning assumptions. Winter lead costs in DFW could run higher or lower than summer; we have no DFW data yet, and your first month replaces these numbers.
Is the Dallas-Fort Worth territory available?
Yes. DFW is open, with one contractor per service line. We are based in Sydney, work Central Time hours, and have no Texas office, staff or clients. See the Texas overview, our pricing, or book a strategy call.
How the replacement-first offer works is on our AC replacement leads page, and the other Texas territories are Houston, Austin and San Antonio.
Sources
- U.S. Climate Normals 1991 to 2020, annual/seasonal, Dallas-Fort Worth AP (USW00003927), NOAA NCEI
- U.S. Climate Normals 1991 to 2020, monthly, Dallas-Fort Worth AP (USW00003927), NOAA NCEI
- DFW 100° Day Summary, NWS Fort Worth/Dallas
- February 2021 Winter Event, NWS Fort Worth/Dallas
- Vintage 2025 population estimates, metro and county totals, US Census Bureau
- Vintage 2025 population estimates, cities and towns, US Census Bureau
- American Community Survey 2024 1-year, tables B25003, B25035, B25036, B25040 and B25077, US Census Bureau
- Building Permits Survey, 2025 annual by CBSA, US Census Bureau
- Oncor Electric Delivery 2025 Form 10-K, US Securities and Exchange Commission
- Understanding the Oncor part of your electric bill, Oncor
- Take A Load Off Texas, Oncor