Raleigh-Cary grew 12.9% between 2020 and 2025, and more than a quarter of its owner homes were built in 2010 or later. Those are not replacement jobs yet. The replacement money sits in the homes built before them. Add a winter with more than 60 freezing nights, a gas-heat core and electric-heat outer counties, and Raleigh needs a campaign with two maps and two seasons.
What makes HVAC replacement in Raleigh a winter business?
The cold. NOAA's 1991 to 2020 normals for Raleigh-Durham International show 64.7 freezing nights a year, with 18.0 in January, 15.4 in December and 13.8 in February, and a January normal low of 31.8°F. Heating degree days (3,153) outnumber cooling degree days (1,805) by about 1.7 to 1.
That puts the busiest selling season in winter, when a heat pump running on backup strips or a 20-year-old gas furnace makes the homeowner pay attention. Summer is real but short: 52.4 days a year at 90°F or more, with 18.6 in July and only 2.0 at 100°F.
For the ads, that means winter copy talks about comfort and running costs on cold nights, not emergencies, and promises a dated install slot rather than same-day service. If a struggling heat pump is still running on backup heat, the homeowner has time for a proper estimate, and a booked estimate with the system's age attached is worth more to your comfort advisor than a rushed call.
Which Raleigh homes are due for replacement?
The 1980 to 2009 homes. Across the metro, 225,821 of 405,187 owner homes (55.7%) were built in those three decades. Another 28.5% were built in 2010 or later, and those are mostly too new to replace. The metro's median year built is 2002, one of the newest housing stocks we cover.
| Census ACS 2024 | Owner-occupied | Median year built | Median home value | Owner homes 2010 or later | Heat: gas / electric / propane |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh-Cary metro | 65.0% | 2002 | $465,800 | 28.5% | 35.8% / 59.7% / 3.2% |
| Wake County | 62.9% | 2002 | $521,600 | 27.3% | 41.5% / 55.6% / 1.8% |
| Johnston County | 71.6% | 2002 | $340,700 | 31.7% | 12.0% / 78.6% / 7.4% |
| City of Raleigh (5-year 2020 to 2024) | 50.7% | 1997 | $415,800 | 14.5% | 39.3% / 58.6% / 1.3% |
Three reads from the table. Wake County is the gas furnace market, at 41.5% utility gas. Johnston County is a heat pump and propane market. And the City of Raleigh has the lowest ownership, 50.7%, so the homeowner question screens out more city leads than suburban ones. In the city, 59.6% of owner homes date from 1980 to 2009, the highest share in the table.
Where is the Raleigh metro growing fastest?
At the edges. The metro reached 1,595,720 people in 2025, up 12.9% since 2020. Franklin County grew 19.5%, Johnston 18.7% and Wake 11.3%, while the City of Raleigh grew 8.2% to 506,306. Builders pulled 11,760 single-family permits across the metro in 2025, and 1,343 in the city.
New subdivisions pull Meta spend toward homes that do not need you yet. We counter that by weighting budget toward ZIP codes with more 1980 to 2009 housing, excluding the newest ones, and letting the system-age answer catch the rest. Growth still helps: every new neighborhood sits beside an older one whose original systems are aging out.
Which rebates can a Raleigh contractor put in the ads?
One on each fuel. On the electric side, Raleigh is Duke Energy territory, and Duke's Smart $aver HVAC page offers up to $450 on qualifying heat pump and central AC installs. On the gas side, Enbridge Gas North Carolina, the former PSNC, pays bill credits on high-efficiency furnaces.
The terms that shape the ads:
- Duke Smart $aver. Only participating contractors can do rebate-eligible work. The program covers Duke residential electric customers in single-family homes, condos, mobile homes, townhomes and duplexes. It requires an ECM fan on the indoor unit, excludes mini-splits and ductless systems, and paperwork must be approved within 60 days of service.
- Enbridge Gas North Carolina. $200 for a gas furnace at 0.92 AFUE or higher, $400 at 0.97 AFUE or higher, $200 for a 90% AFUE gas boiler. A licensed contractor installs, the homeowner submits within 90 days with an itemized receipt, and the credit arrives on the gas bill in 4 to 6 weeks or longer.
So a Wake County furnace plus AC ad can name both: the Enbridge credit on the furnace and, if you participate, the Duke rebate on the AC or heat pump side. A Johnston County heat pump ad names only Duke. If you are not on Duke's participating list, that line comes out.
How would we run Meta and Google through a Raleigh year?
Heating offers from November to March, cooling offers from June to August, planned replacement in between. Meta does most of the work in the cold months, reaching owners of aging systems before they fail. Google takes the larger share in summer, bidding on searches like "AC replacement Cary" and "heat pump not heating Raleigh" that homeowners make when a system fails.
| Month | Days at 90°F or more | Freezing nights | Ad split at $4,000 | Offer focus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0.0 | 18.0 | Meta $2,500 / Google $1,500 | Heat pump replacement, furnace plus AC with Enbridge credit |
| February | 0.0 | 13.8 | Meta $2,500 / Google $1,500 | Heat pump and furnace changeouts |
| March | 0.0 | 7.8 | Meta $2,500 / Google $1,500 | Replace before summer |
| April and May | 0.3, 2.8 | 1.1, 0.0 | Meta $2,000 / Google $2,000 | Pre-summer install dates, financing |
| June | 12.1 | 0.0 | Google $2,500 / Meta $1,500 | AC and heat pump replacement |
| July | 18.6 | 0.0 | Google $2,500 / Meta $1,500 | Replacement, next open install slot |
| August | 13.8 | 0.0 | Google $2,500 / Meta $1,500 | Replacement, financing |
| September and October | 4.5, 0.4 | 0.0, 0.7 | Meta $2,000 / Google $2,000 | Replace before winter, maintenance memberships |
| November and December | 0.0 | 7.8, 15.4 | Meta $2,500 / Google $1,500 | Heating failures into full replacements |
What changes in a Raleigh campaign:
- County ad sets. A typical build: west Wake (Cary, Apex, Holly Springs, Morrisville), north Wake (Wake Forest, Rolesville), south and east Wake (Garner, Fuquay-Varina, Knightdale, Wendell) and Johnston (Clayton, Smithfield). Each gets its own budget, and Franklin County only goes in if your trucks already go to Louisburg.
- Fuel-matched creative. Wake ads show furnace plus AC changeouts next to heat pumps. Johnston ads lead with heat pumps and note propane options.
- Rebates by utility. The Enbridge credit only appears to homes on Enbridge gas, and the Duke line only if you are a participating contractor.
- City renters filtered. Inside Raleigh city limits, where about half of occupied homes are rented, the homeowner question does more of the screening.
Every lead answers six questions before it reaches your calendar. In Raleigh, the current-system answer splits leads three ways: heat pump, gas furnace plus AC, or propane. Your comfort advisor sees which before the visit.
Worked example: a Raleigh July at minimum spend (planning assumptions, not results)
Ad spend: Google $2,500 + Meta $1,500 = $4,000
$4,000 ÷ $100 to $130 assumed blended cost per lead = about 35 leads
35 × 60% pass the qualifier = about 21 qualified. 21 × 60% book = about 12 to 13 booked estimates
12.5 × 30% close rate = about 3 to 4 AC or heat pump replacements
Ad cost per booked estimate: about $320. All-in with the $2,500 fee ($6,500): about $520
Break-even jobs = ($2,500 + $4,000) ÷ your gross profit per replacement
A booked estimate, in these numbers, is a qualified homeowner with an in-home visit fixed on your calendar. July is Raleigh's hottest month, and January, with 18.0 freezing nights, is the other peak for heat pump and furnace offers. These are planning assumptions with no Raleigh data behind them. Your first months replace them.
Is the Raleigh territory open?
Yes. Raleigh-Cary is open, one contractor per service line for the metro. Two people would run your account: Sam on audits, strategy and media buying, Alan on onboarding, CRM and client operations. We are based in Sydney, work Eastern Time hours, and have no North Carolina office, staff or clients.
The ads run in your own Meta and Google accounts, the landing page sits on your domain, and leads live in a CRM you log into. See the HVAC Profit Machine, heat pump installation leads, pricing, or book a strategy call. The other open North Carolina territory is Charlotte.
Sources
- U.S. Climate Normals 1991 to 2020, annual and seasonal, Raleigh Durham Intl AP (USW00013722), NOAA NCEI
- U.S. Climate Normals 1991 to 2020, monthly, Raleigh Durham Intl AP (USW00013722), NOAA NCEI
- Vintage 2025 population estimates, metro and county totals, US Census Bureau
- Vintage 2025 population estimates, cities and towns, US Census Bureau
- American Community Survey 2024 1-year, tables B25003, B25035, B25036, B25040 and B25077, US Census Bureau
- American Community Survey 2020 to 2024 5-year, tables B25003, B25035, B25036, B25040 and B25077, US Census Bureau
- Building Permits Survey, 2025 annual by CBSA, US Census Bureau
- Building Permits Survey, 2025 annual by place, South Region, US Census Bureau
- Smart $aver HVAC installation rebates, Duke Energy
- 13,000 without power in Wake County as severe storms move through area, CBS 17 (July 29, 2026)
- Residential rebates and discounts, Enbridge Gas North Carolina
- Enbridge completes acquisition of Public Service Company of North Carolina, Gas Processing and LNG (October 1, 2024)