How much does HVAC marketing cost with Scale Theory?
Our fee is $2,500 a month. The first 90 days cost $7,500, split in two: $3,750 on signing, which covers setup, and $3,750 once we have booked 3 central AC or heat pump replacement or installation estimates of $5,000 or more before sales tax into your calendar, or at day 90, whichever comes first. After that it is month to month with 30 days notice. Ad spend is separate.
Put simply: pay half to start. You pay the other half once we've booked 3 central AC or heat pump estimates into your calendar.
That is the whole price, the same for every contractor who fits. There is no separate setup fee. We publish it because a lot of agencies do not, and you should be able to check the math before you give anyone an hour of your time.
What is included in the $2,500 a month?
Everything needed to turn ad spend into booked estimates on your calendar: Meta and Google Search ads, landing pages, the six-question qualifier, the CRM, a text and call inside 60 seconds, booking, estimate follow-up, review requests, Google Business Profile management, Off-Peak Fill and the Friday report.
| Included | What it means |
|---|---|
| Meta ads (Facebook and Instagram) | Built from your job photos and video, run in your own Meta Business Manager |
| Google Search ads | Replacement and new install searches in your service area, run in your own Google Ads account |
| Landing pages | Pages for your service area on your domain or a subdomain |
| Six-question qualifier | Home type, current system and age, replacement or repair, timing, budget range, homeowner or renter |
| CRM (GoHighLevel) | Your own login, every lead and message in one place |
| Text and call inside 60 seconds | AI receptionist with a virtual assistant behind it, in your company's name |
| Booking | In-home estimates on your calendar with the homeowner's answers attached |
| Estimate follow-up | Texts on days 1, 3 and 7 in your name, stopped when you mark the job sold or lost |
| Reviews and Google Business Profile | Automated review request after install, profile kept current |
| Off-Peak Fill | Shoulder and winter offers: heat pump heating, furnace plus AC changeouts, maintenance plans, pre-summer booking |
| Friday report | Ad spend by channel, qualified leads, booked estimates, cost per booked estimate, jobs sold |
In most cases we can also push booked estimates into the field service software you already use by webhook or Zapier-style automation. Every stage is explained on the HVAC Profit Machine page.
How does the 90-day payment work?
You pay $3,750 on signing. The second $3,750 is due once we have booked 3 central AC or heat pump replacement or installation estimates of $5,000 or more before sales tax into your calendar, or at day 90, whichever comes first. Half of the first 90 days waits until we have delivered. After day 90 it is $2,500 a month, 30 days notice.
An estimate counts once it is booked on your calendar from a qualified lead. Repairs, service calls, single mini-split heads and new-construction work still show in the Friday report. They just do not count toward the 3.
| Period | Scale Theory fee | Ad spend (paid to Meta and Google) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| On signing | $3,750 | $3,750 | |
| Month 1 | $4,000 | $4,000 | |
| Month 2 | $4,000 | $4,000 | |
| 3 booked estimates or day 90, whichever is first | $3,750 | $3,750 | |
| Month 3 | $4,000 | $4,000 | |
| First 90 days | $7,500 | $12,000 | $19,500 |
| Each month after | $2,500 | $4,000 | $6,500 |
The second payment can land in month 1, 2 or 3, depending on when the third estimate is booked. The 90-day total does not change.
Why day 90 as the backstop? Because booking depends partly on things outside our control, like how many estimate slots you open on your calendar and whether your install backlog lets us keep spend running. If the system books estimates quickly, you pay sooner. If it is slow, the second payment waits until the end of the first 90 days.
How much ad spend do you need, and how does it split?
The minimum is $4,000 a month across Meta and Google combined, paid directly to them on your card, with no markup from us. By default Meta gets $2,500 and Google Search $1,500. In peak cooling months we flip it to Google $2,500 and Meta $1,500, because homeowners search when a system quits.
| Period | Meta | Google Search | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Default split | $2,500 | $1,500 | Meta reaches homeowners thinking about a new system before they search |
| Peak cooling (Texas and Sun Belt, roughly May to September) | $1,500 | $2,500 | Breakdowns in the heat send people straight to Google |
| Multi-metro or commercial | Scoped on the call | Scoped on the call | $6,000 or more a month combined |
Spend also follows your calendar. If your install backlog passes three weeks, we turn spend down rather than book estimates you cannot install, but it does not drop below the $4,000 minimum while we run your account.
What do the planning numbers say?
At $4,000 a month of ad spend, our planning assumptions give about 12 to 13 booked estimates and about 3 to 4 jobs sold a month. That works out to about $320 ad cost per booked estimate and about $520 all-in. These are assumptions to be replaced with your data, not results.
Worked example: the planning funnel (assumptions, not results)
$4,000 ad spend / $100 to $130 assumed blended cost per lead = about 35 leads
35 x 60% pass the qualifier = about 21 qualified leads
21 x 60% book = about 12 to 13 booked estimates
Ad cost per booked estimate: $4,000 / 12.5 = about $320
All-in cost per booked estimate: ($2,500 fee + $4,000 ad spend) / 12.5 = about $520
12.5 x 30% close rate = about 3 to 4 jobs sold a month
We have no US clients yet, so every figure above is a planning assumption. Your first four Friday reports replace them.
How many jobs do you need to break even?
Break-even is your monthly fee plus ad spend, divided by your gross profit per replacement job. At the $4,000 minimum, that is $6,500 divided by your gross profit per changeout. Use your own number. The example below is illustrative only.
Illustrative example: break-even (not a benchmark, use your own numbers)
Formula: (monthly fee + ad spend) / gross profit per replacement job = jobs a month to cover the cost
All-in monthly cost: $2,500 fee + $4,000 ad spend = $6,500
If your average changeout brings $3,500 in gross profit: $6,500 / $3,500 = about 2 jobs a month covers everything
If it brings $2,500: $6,500 / $2,500 = about 2.6 jobs a month
If it brings $5,000: $6,500 / $5,000 = about 1.3 jobs a month
Covering your marketing cost is not the same as profit on the business, and nothing about this structure guarantees either. On the strategy call we ask your average ticket and gross margin on replacements. If break-even needs more jobs than your install crews can add, we will tell you rather than take the fee.
What is not included?
SEO, Google Local Services Ads, repair and tune-up ads, ad spend and full website rebuilds are not included. You pay Meta and Google directly for ads. SEO may come later as a separate add-on. We build landing pages, not full websites.
| Not included | Why |
|---|---|
| Ad spend | You pay Meta and Google directly. You see every dollar and there is no markup. |
| SEO | A different job on a different timeline. It may come later as a separate add-on. |
| Google Local Services Ads | We do not run them. If you already do, keep them and compare them against our booked estimates. |
| Repair and tune-up ads | Our ads lead with system replacements and new installs. We do not advertise single repairs, window units or one-off mini-split heads. |
| Full website rebuilds | We build landing pages on your domain, not whole sites. |
How does this compare with other ways to pay for HVAC leads?
Marketplaces and Local Services Ads charge per lead. Our model is a flat fee plus ad spend you pay directly, with leads that are yours alone. Which is cheaper depends on cost per booked estimate and jobs sold, not cost per lead, so compare them on those numbers.
| Model | How you pay | What the published sources say |
|---|---|---|
| Google Local Services Ads | Per lead | Google says you "only pay when potential customers get in touch through your ads" |
| Marketplace leads (Angi) | Per lead, plus optional membership or ads | Housecall Pro's guide puts Angi at $15 to $85 per lead across trades and says pricing "varies by trade, location, competition" |
| Scale Theory | $2,500 a month plus at least $4,000 ad spend paid to Meta and Google | Published on this page |
Per-lead prices look small next to a monthly fee. The fair comparison is what each source costs per booked estimate and per job sold. The HVAC lead generation page walks through that math, and our post on HVAC marketing cost covers budgets in more depth.
Why only one contractor per metro?
We take one HVAC contractor per service line per metro area, first come, because we cannot run ads for two contractors chasing the same homeowners and do right by both. On Google, you would be bidding against yourself through us.
We are two brothers based in Sydney, working US business hours, and we are new to the US market. If you are in Texas, see our Texas HVAC marketing page for open metros, or book a strategy call and we will run your numbers with you.