What are AC replacement leads?
AC replacement leads are homeowners who want a whole system replaced or newly installed: central AC, a heat pump, or an AC and furnace changeout. With us, each one has already answered six questions about their home, system age, timing and budget range before your phone buzzes, and each one is yours alone.
A booked estimate is a qualified homeowner booked for an in-home estimate on your calendar, at a set time. That is what we deliver. The lead is the raw material. The booked estimate is the product.
Why do we lead with replacements instead of repairs?
Because a replacement carries enough gross profit to pay for the marketing that found it. A repair call rarely does. When cost per booked estimate sits in the hundreds of dollars, the job at the end has to be worth thousands. Replacement-first ads keep your comfort advisors in front of the right homeowners.
The numbers on the job side are large. Carrier's 2026 cost guide puts heat pump replacement for most homeowners at "between $6,000 and $25,000", driven by home size, system type, climate, backup heat, ductwork condition and local labor rates. Against that, a cost per booked estimate in the hundreds is a reasonable trade. Against a diagnostic call, it is not.
So our ads lead with:
- Central AC replacement and new central air installs
- Heat pump installation, including gas furnace to heat pump conversions where they make sense
- AC and furnace changeouts, sold as one system
- New installs in additions and homes without central air, when ductwork is part of the job
We do not run ads for single repairs, window units or one-off ductless mini-split heads. A repair or single mini-split lead never routes to Priority.
What does the six-question qualifier filter out?
The qualifier filters out renters, repair-only requests, single mini-split heads, addresses outside your service area and homeowners with no timing or budget. What reaches Priority is a homeowner with a replacement or new install in mind, a rough budget and a timeframe. Every answer is attached to the booked estimate.
| Question | What the homeowner taps | What it filters | Why it matters to you |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Home type | Single-family, townhome, condo, manufactured | Units where the HOA or landlord controls the system | Tells your comfort advisor what to expect on arrival |
| 2. Current system and age | Central AC, heat pump, AC and furnace, none, and age band | Systems too new to replace | A 15-year-old system is a different conversation from a 4-year-old one |
| 3. Replacement, new install or repair | One of three | Repair-only requests | Repairs never route to Priority |
| 4. Timing | As soon as possible, within a month, within 3 months, just researching | Browsers | Sets how fast we call and how hard we follow up |
| 5. Budget range | A few ranges, plus "not sure" | Budgets that cannot cover a system | Stops you driving out to price a job nobody can pay for |
| 6. Homeowner or renter | One of two | Renters | Renters cannot sign for a new system |
Nothing is deleted. Filtered leads get a polite automated reply and stay in the CRM, tagged by answer, so you can see exactly what was filtered and why. If the qualifier lets through too many or too few, we change it and say so in the Friday report. The page that hosts it is on our HVAC landing pages page.
Which ad angles do we run in each season?
We change the offer with the season. In summer we catch AC failures and "not cooling" searches. In the shoulder months we push heat pumps and pre-summer booking. In winter we run furnace plus AC changeouts and maintenance plan offers. The timing below follows Texas and the Sun Belt.
| Season (Texas and Sun Belt) | Lead angle | Example offer | Budget lean |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak cooling, roughly May to September | AC failure and "AC not cooling" | Same-week in-home estimate, a real install date, financing if you offer it | Google $2,500, Meta $1,500 |
| Fall shoulder, October to November | Heat pump installation | Heat pump for cooling and heating in one system, with a proper load calculation at the estimate | Meta $2,500, Google $1,500 |
| Winter, December to February | Furnace plus AC changeout | Replace both in one visit before next summer | Meta-led |
| Spring shoulder, March to April | Pre-summer booking | Book the install before the first heat wave and before crews fill up | Meta-led, Google rising |
| Any season with gaps | Maintenance plan offers | Membership sign-ups that feed future replacements | Small share, only when the calendar has room |
Summer: the AC that just quit
When a system dies in August, homeowners search, and they want someone in the driveway this week. Google Search carries most of the budget. The ads speak to a failed system and a fast in-home estimate, with an install date that comes from your real calendar. We keep repair searches out of the account with negative keywords, because a capacitor swap is not what we are paying to find.
Shoulder season: heat pumps
In the fall and spring, nobody is searching in a panic, so Meta does more of the work. Heat pump ads work well here because one system covers cooling and heating, which Carrier's guide notes can be "more cost-effective than purchasing and installing a separate furnace and air conditioner." In all-electric homes, it is often the main replacement conversation.
Winter: furnace plus AC changeouts
In gas-heat markets, a furnace that fails in January often sits next to an AC that is the same age. Winter ads offer to replace both in one visit, priced as one system, before the summer rush. This is part of Off-Peak Fill, our shoulder and winter module, explained on the HVAC Profit Machine page.
How do we mention financing and rebates?
We only mention financing if you already offer it, in the words and terms your provider has approved. We only mention a utility rebate if the program is current and your company qualifies, and we check the utility's own page first. We do not use the federal tax credit, because the IRS lists it for property placed in service before December 31, 2025.
Financing matters on replacements because many homeowners did not plan for a new system. "Financing available" on the ad and a short line on the landing page are usually enough. The monthly payment conversation belongs with your comfort advisor, not in the ad.
What does a month of replacement leads look like?
At $4,000 a month of combined ad spend, our planning assumptions give about 12 to 13 booked replacement estimates and about 3 to 4 jobs sold a month at a 30% close rate. Those are assumptions to be replaced with your data, not results.
Worked example: a month of replacement leads (planning assumptions)
$4,000 ad spend / $100 to $130 assumed blended cost per lead = about 35 leads
35 x 60% pass the qualifier (the repair, renter and out-of-area leads drop out here) = about 21 qualified
21 x 60% book an in-home estimate = about 12 to 13 booked estimates
12.5 x 30% close rate = about 3 to 4 replacement jobs sold
Ad cost per booked estimate: $4,000 / 12.5 = about $320
Whether that works for you depends on your gross profit per changeout. The break-even formula is on the pricing page.
Who are these leads for?
They are for established residential HVAC contractors, roughly 3 or more trucks, where replacements and new installs are a large share of revenue and the install crew can take on 2 or more extra jobs a month. We take one contractor per service line per metro area, first come.
If most of your work is repair and service, these leads will not suit you, and we will say so on the call. We are new to the US market, so we have no US results to show yet. Read how to get more AC replacement jobs and heat pump installation leads, or book a strategy call.