HVAC Marketing in Fort Worth: heat pump and AC replacements in a million-person city

Fort Worth crossed one million people in the Census Bureau's 2025 estimates, at 1,028,117, and no other US city that size grew faster since 2020. It also permitted 5,887 single-family homes in 2025, almost three times the City of Dallas. That is a big replacement market with a new-build wave on top.

What makes Fort Worth a different HVAC market from Dallas?

Size, speed and electric heat. Fort Worth grew 11.9% from 2020 to 2025, while Dallas city grew 1.9%. Two in three Fort Worth homes heat with electricity. And there are 195,072 owner-occupied homes in the city alone, more than Plano, Frisco and McKinney combined. The default Fort Worth job is a heat pump or electric-heat system, not a gas furnace.

How many new homes is Fort Worth adding?

More than any other Texas city in the Census permit file. The Bureau counted 5,887 single-family permits in Fort Worth in 2025, against 4,774 in the City of Houston and 2,026 in the City of Dallas. Those homes are not replacement jobs yet. They are the owners who will need one in the 2040s, and a Meta audience for maintenance agreements now.

The replacement money today sits in the other three quarters of the owner homes. 35.5% were built before 1980 and 40.7% between 1980 and 2009. So Fort Worth has three housing layers at once: older homes on a second or third system, middle-aged homes on a first or second, and new builds under warranty. One ad cannot speak to all three, so the qualifier's system-age answer decides which one a lead hears.

Heat pump or AC and furnace in Fort Worth?

Mostly heat pump or electric heat. Census data shows 67.8% of occupied Fort Worth homes heat with electricity and 30.1% with utility gas. In Plano and Frisco, gas is closer to half or more. A Fort Worth campaign built around furnace changeouts would miss most of the city.

So heat pump replacement is the lead offer. The gas track still runs: Atmos Energy lists Fort Worth in its Mid-Tex service area, and AC plus furnace changeouts get their own landing page section.

How does Fort Worth's price point change the ads?

It puts financing near the top. The median Fort Worth home is valued at $303,000, well below Frisco at $642,100 or McKinney at $471,800. So Fort Worth creative leads with monthly payment options, if you offer financing, and a free in-home estimate.

At 57.0% owner occupancy, the qualifier's homeowner question also screens out a lot of renters here.

Who delivers Fort Worth's power?

Oncor. Its 2025 annual report names Fort Worth in its delivery territory, and homeowners buy from a retail electric provider of their choice. Oncor's efficiency program does not publish a dollar amount, so we do not print one.

If you are an approved Oncor provider, the landing page can say so and link the program. Otherwise Fort Worth ads sell the job itself: a free estimate, a firm install date and the right equipment for an electric-heat home.

How would we run Meta and Google for a Fort Worth contractor?

Google-heavy from May to September, Meta-heavy from October to April, with heat pumps leading all year. Meacham Field averages 105.5 days at 90°F or more and 24.1 at 100°F. Winter counts too: 32.8 freezing nights a year, which is when electric-heat homeowners notice their system. Each lead answers six qualifier questions first.

What changes in Fort Worth:

• A big map, cut by age. ZIP codes where the qualifier keeps returning 15 to 30 year old systems get full-replacement creative. ZIP codes full of new builds get maintenance agreement offers until those systems come due.
• Edges by truck route. Keller, Saginaw, Haltom City, Benbrook and Crowley only if your crews already run there.
• City-name search terms. "Heat pump replacement Fort Worth" and "AC replacement Fort Worth", with repair parts, DIY and job-seeker searches excluded.

More on the channel mix: Google Ads for HVAC and Facebook ads for HVAC.

When do Fort Worth homeowners replace systems?

Figures are NOAA 1991 to 2020 normals for Fort Worth Meacham Field.

These are planning assumptions, not Fort Worth data. A 43% renter share could pull the qualifier pass rate below 60%. Your first month of results replaces every number here.

Can a Fort Worth contractor hold the territory?

Yes. Fort Worth is part of our Dallas-Fort Worth territory, which is open. We sign one HVAC contractor per service line for the whole metro, so a Fort Worth-based contractor who signs holds DFW, and the ads run only where your trucks go.

See the Dallas-Fort Worth territory page, our pricing, or book a strategy call. Scale Theory is based in Sydney, keeps Central Time hours, and has no Texas office, staff or clients.