How to get more central AC installation leads

I run onboarding, the CRM and client operations at Scale Theory. Sam builds the ads. So when we talk about central AC installation leads, I mostly think about what happens after the form is sent: who replies, what they know, and whether the lead reaches a comfort advisor's calendar in good shape.

That part decides more jobs than most contractors expect. This post covers where central AC installation leads come from, how we sort them from repair requests, what the first 60 seconds look like, and the math to plan how many you need. We are new to the US market and have no US client results yet. The funnel numbers below are planning assumptions, labeled as such.

What is a central AC installation lead?

A central AC installation lead is a homeowner who wants a new central air system installed, either replacing a system that is old or failing, or adding central air to a home without it. It is not a repair request. It should end in an in-home estimate with a comfort advisor, not a service call with a tech.

That distinction sounds obvious. In practice, most HVAC lead forms treat "my AC is blowing warm air" and "I want a new 4-ton system" the same way. Both land in the same inbox, both get called back when someone has time, and the install lead waits behind three repair calls.

Two terms we use throughout:

• Qualified lead: a homeowner who passed the six-question qualifier.
• Booked estimate: a qualified homeowner booked for an in-home estimate on your calendar, at a set time.

How do you get more central AC installation leads?

Advertise installs and replacements, not repairs. Run Google Search for homeowners searching for a new system and Meta ads for owners of older systems who have not started looking. Send both to a landing page for your service area, qualify with six questions, and reply inside 60 seconds so the lead is still warm.

The pieces, in order:

1. Ads built around full system installs. Central AC, heat pumps, and AC plus furnace changeouts. We do not advertise single repairs, window units or one-off ductless mini-split heads.
2. A landing page for the service line and area. Not your home page, which offers everything.
3. The six-question qualifier. It sorts installs from repairs before anyone picks up a phone.
4. CRM routing. Only qualified leads go to the CRM, where install leads go to the front of the line.
5. A 60-second reply. An AI receptionist texts and calls, with a virtual assistant behind it.
6. The booked estimate. On your comfort advisor's calendar, with all six answers attached.

Sam covers the ad side in how to get more AC replacement jobs. The rest of this post is the operations side.

Which questions sort installation leads from repair calls?

Six questions do it: home type, current system and its age, whether they want a replacement, new install or repair, timing, budget range, and whether they own or rent. Together they tell you if the lead is an install, how soon, and whether the person can say yes to the job.

Here is how we grade leads from those answers:

A repair or a single mini-split lead never routes to Priority. That rule protects your comfort advisor's time, which is the scarcest thing in most replacement businesses. The budget range question does quiet work too. Someone who picks the lowest option may still buy, but your comfort advisor should walk in knowing that financing will come up.

Where do central AC installation leads come from in a market like Tampa?

They come from owner-occupied single-family homes with systems at replacement age, in a climate where air conditioning runs most of the year. Tampa fits that well: high owner occupancy, a large stock of homes built from 1980 to 2009, and a very long cooling season.

The numbers for the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro, from Census and NOAA data we checked:

• 68.0% of occupied homes are owner-occupied, 936,518 homes, per the 2024 American Community Survey (ACS 2024 1-year).
• 436,816 owner-occupied homes were built between 1980 and 2009, many likely on their second or third system (same source).
• 91.6% of occupied homes heat with electricity (same source), so most "central AC" jobs there are heat pumps or straight-cool systems with electric heat.
• Tampa International averages about 3,928 cooling degree days and 94 days a year at 90°F or hotter (NOAA climate normals).

That third point changes the ads. A Tampa homeowner searching "new ac unit" is very often a heat pump buyer. Your landing page and your comfort advisor should be ready to talk about both. More on the market is on our Tampa HVAC marketing page.

What should happen in the first 60 seconds after an installation lead comes in?

The homeowner should get a text and a call from your company inside a minute, while they still have their phone in hand. The goal of that contact is simple: confirm the details and book an in-home estimate at a set time. It is not a sales call and it is not a price conversation.

A typical first text, sent in your company's name:

"Hi Maria, this is Jordan with [your company]. Thanks for your request about replacing your AC. We have estimate times this Thursday at 10am or Friday at 3pm. Which works better?"

Then a call follows right away. If the homeowner answers, the AI receptionist or our virtual assistant confirms the address, reads back the system details and books the slot. If they do not answer, the text thread stays open and the CRM retries on a set schedule.

What makes this work is not the AI. It is the rules around it:

• Booking windows set by you. We only offer slots your comfort advisors can actually make.
• Service area checks. ZIP codes outside your area get a polite no, not an estimate that loses you half a day.
• Consent. We only text homeowners who agreed to it on the form, from a registered business number.
• A human behind it. Anything unusual goes to our virtual assistant, and anything urgent goes to your office.

How do you hand a booked estimate to your comfort advisor?

Put the six answers, the ad the homeowner responded to and any texts they sent into the calendar event and the CRM record. Your comfort advisor should walk in knowing the home type, system age, what the homeowner wants, their timing and budget range, and that they own the home.

In most cases we can push booked estimates into the field service software you already use, like ServiceTitan, Housecall Pro or Jobber, by webhook or a Zapier-style automation. We do not claim a built-in integration with any of them. What matters is that the comfort advisor does not have to open three systems to prepare.

After the estimate, follow-up starts: texts on days 1, 3 and 7 in your company's name, until the homeowner says yes or no. I cover the wording in HVAC lead follow-up: the 60-second reply and the day 1, 3 and 7 texts.

How many central AC installation leads do you need?

Start from installs, not leads. Decide how many extra installs a month your crews can handle, divide by your close rate to get booked estimates, then work back through the booking rate and the qualifier pass rate. That tells you how many raw leads to plan for.

Every number above is a planning figure, not a result. The line most owners skip is the last one. Twenty extra estimates is a full week of a comfort advisor's time each month. If nobody has that time, the answer is not more leads. It is either a second comfort advisor or a lower target.

For context on job size, Sears Home Services puts central AC replacement at "$3,000 to $7,500 for most homes" (Sears Home Services). Your own average ticket and gross profit are what matter for the budget.

How do rebates and refrigerant changes affect installation leads?

They give homeowners a reason to act and your comfort advisor something to explain. Utility rebates can tip a homeowner from "next year" to "this month," but only if you are a participating contractor. Refrigerant questions come up in the home, so get the facts from the source before putting them in an ad.

Two examples:

• Tampa Electric pays "$40" at 15.20 SEER2 and "$550" at 16.20 SEER2 for heat pumps, straight-cool with gas heat and geothermal systems. It states that ductless mini-splits are not eligible, and contractors need an eight-digit vendor number to submit (Tampa Electric). The jump between the two tiers is a useful "good, better, best" talking point.
• Refrigerant. New residential systems have moved away from R-410A to lower-GWP refrigerants such as R-454B and R-32. An EPA final rule published May 26, 2026 and effective July 27, 2026 removed the installation deadline for R-410A systems whose specified components were made or imported before January 1, 2025 (Federal Register, 91 FR 31284). We explain what that means for your ads in the R-454B refrigerant transition.

What should you track to know if installation leads are working?

Track qualified leads, booked estimates, cost per booked estimate and installs sold, by channel, every week. Add one operations number: median time to first reply. If that number creeps past a few minutes, booked estimates usually fall before anyone notices the ads are fine.

Our clients get this in a Friday report: ad spend by channel, qualified leads, booked estimates, cost per booked estimate and jobs sold. Ads run in your own Meta and Google accounts, leads live in a CRM you log into, and landing pages sit on your domain, so all of it stays with you if you leave.

We take one HVAC contractor per service line per metro area, first come. We are based in Sydney, Australia, and work US business hours remotely. The full system is on our AC replacement leads page, and if your problem is estimates that go quiet, read how HVAC companies get more booked estimates from the leads they already have.

Alan

Co-founder. Onboarding and client operations

Alan runs onboarding and the day-to-day of every account: the CRM, the booking flow, the follow-up and the Friday report.

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