Heat pump installation leads: how to market heat pumps in 2026

For most of 2023 to 2025, heat pump marketing had an easy hook: a federal tax credit of up to $2,000. A lot of contractors built ads, landing pages and sales scripts around it. For homes that get a heat pump installed in 2026, that hook is gone, and some of those ads are still running.

This post covers where heat pump installation leads come from now, who buys, what to say, and when to push. I handle onboarding, the CRM and operations at Scale Theory, so there is a fair bit here about sorting leads once they arrive. We are new to the US market and have no US client results yet. Any funnel numbers are planning assumptions, labeled as such.

What is a heat pump installation lead?

A heat pump installation lead is a homeowner who wants a new central heat pump system, usually replacing an old AC and furnace, an older heat pump, or electric heat. It should end in an in-home estimate with a comfort advisor. A request to fix an existing heat pump is a repair lead and belongs with dispatch.

A booked estimate, the number we work toward, is a qualified homeowner booked for an in-home estimate on your calendar, at a set time.

Heat pump leads look a lot like central AC leads, with one extra question that matters: how is the home heated today? The answer changes the pitch, the equipment and sometimes the rebate.

Is the federal heat pump tax credit still available in 2026?

No, not for new installs. The IRS says the Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit, section 25C, "will not be allowed for any property placed in service after December 31, 2025." That change came from the 2025 law the IRS calls "the One, Big, Beautiful Bill." Heat pumps installed in 2026 do not qualify.

The source is the IRS FAQ on changes under Public Law 119-21 (IRS FAQs on OBBB changes). The IRS credit page also describes the old cap of "$2,000 per year for qualified heat pumps" and says the credit applies to property placed in service before the end of 2025 (IRS, Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit).

Here is the catch. When we checked on September 30, 2026, the ENERGY STAR air-source heat pump page still said certified heat pumps "are eligible for a federal tax credit up to $2,000" for products installed "between January 1, 2023, and December 31, 2032" (ENERGY STAR). Some cost guides still mention the credit too. Homeowners will find those pages. The IRS is the authority on tax credits, so go by the IRS.

What to do this week:

1. Search your own website, ads and sales sheets for "tax credit," "25C" and "$2,000." Remove or correct them.
2. Brief your comfort advisors. Homeowners who read an old page will ask. Give a short, accurate answer and suggest they talk to their tax preparer.
3. Stop leading with tax savings. Lead with comfort, running cost and replacing an old system in one visit.

We are not tax advisers. Nothing here is tax advice for you or your customers.

Who are the best heat pump installation leads in 2026?

Owners of single-family homes with an aging system and electric heat, such as an electric furnace or heat strips, are the easiest fit. Next come owners replacing an old AC and furnace together. In mostly gas-heat markets, many will choose a heat pump paired with a gas furnace, so ask about heating fuel up front.

The table is why the six-question qualifier asks about current system and age. It lets your comfort advisor walk in knowing which of these conversations is coming.

ENERGY STAR gives you a plain-English way to explain the product: a certified air-source heat pump "can deliver up to three times more heat energy to a home than the electrical energy it consumes," and cold-climate models are tested "down to 5°F" (ENERGY STAR). Use lines like these in ads instead of tax claims.

How is heat pump marketing different in a gas-heat market like Atlanta?

In Atlanta most homes heat with gas, so a pure "switch to a heat pump" message reaches fewer buyers than in Florida or Texas. The better approach is to sell whole-system replacement, then offer a heat pump or dual fuel option inside the estimate. Target electric-heat homes for heat-pump-first ads.

The Atlanta numbers, from data we checked:

• 53.1% of occupied homes heat with utility gas and 43.6% with electricity in the Atlanta metro (ACS 2024 1-year, table B25040).
• 939,339 owner-occupied homes were built from 1980 to 2009, about 59% of owner-occupied homes and the largest replacement-age base of the metros we studied (same source, table B25036).
• Atlanta Hartsfield averages about 2,051 cooling degree days and 47 days a year at 90°F or hotter (NOAA climate normals).

That is a shorter, milder cooling season than Tampa or Phoenix and a lot of older homes. It favors full system replacement messages and a longer heating-season push.

Georgia Power's Home Energy Improvement Program, valid August 1, 2026 to December 31, 2028, includes 50% of cost up to $1,500 for replacing an electric furnace with an air-source heat pump, and an electric Home Comfort Bundle at 50% up to $1,700. Both require a Program Installer (Georgia Power HEIP). If you are an approved installer, that is a strong, current reason to act for electric-furnace homes. More on the metro is on our Atlanta HVAC marketing page.

What should heat pump ads say in 2026?

Say what the homeowner gets: one system that heats and cools, lower heating cost than electric resistance heat, a quieter and more even home, and a replacement done in one visit. Add financing and a verified utility rebate if you qualify. Leave the federal tax credit out.

Ad angles we would test:

• Old electric heat: "Still heating with an electric furnace? Ask about a heat pump estimate."
• Two old units: "AC and furnace both past 15 years? Get one estimate for the whole system."
• Utility rebate (if eligible): "Georgia Power approved installer. Ask what your home qualifies for."
• Winter comfort: "Cold spots in the back bedroom? A properly sized heat pump and a duct check can help."

What to avoid: "free heat pump," "tax credit," "save thousands," or any savings figure you cannot back up for that home. Keep the price out of the headline too. Published cost guides do not agree: Sears Home Services lists heat pumps at "$4,000 to $8,000" (Sears Home Services), while HomeGuide puts common air-source systems at "$10,000 to $25,000" installed (HomeGuide). A homeowner who has read one of those will anchor on it. Let the comfort advisor price the home.

When should you run heat pump ads?

All year, but push hardest in the shoulder season and early winter. That is when AC replacement searches slow, crews have room, and heating bills are on homeowners' minds. We run heat pump offers as part of Off-Peak Fill, alongside AC plus furnace changeouts, maintenance plan offers and pre-summer booking.

By default, outside peak cooling months, the ad split is Meta $2,500 and Google $1,500. That suits heat pumps, because many buyers are not searching yet. They have an old system and a high bill, and a Meta ad is the first time they seriously think about replacing it. In peak cooling months we flip to Google $2,500 and Meta $1,500, and heat pump ads become a smaller share.

Every number above is a planning assumption, and heat pump buyers in a gas-heat market may book at lower rates than AC replacement buyers in July. Your first month of real data replaces all of it. The point of the example is the shape: shoulder months keep the calendar full with fewer, larger jobs rather than going quiet.

How should you handle heat pump leads once they come in?

The same way as any replacement lead: text and call inside 60 seconds, book an in-home estimate on your calendar with the qualifier answers attached, and follow up by text on days 1, 3 and 7 after the estimate. Heat pump buyers often take longer to decide, so the follow-up matters more.

A few things we set up differently for heat pump leads:

• Heating fuel in the calendar note. "Electric furnace, 18 years" tells your comfort advisor the whole story.
• Rebate flag. If the home looks eligible for a utility program you are approved for, the CRM tags it so the paperwork is ready at the estimate.
• Longer nurture. Homeowners who say "just researching" get a short text sequence through the heating season, not one call and done.

In most cases we can push booked estimates into the field service software you already use by webhook or a Zapier-style automation. The day 1, 3 and 7 texts are covered in HVAC lead follow-up.

Is heat pump lead generation worth it without the tax credit?

Yes, for the right contractor and market. The credit helped, but the reasons homeowners replace systems did not change: old equipment, high bills, uneven comfort and a failing unit. Heat pumps also fill the shoulder season, which is when replacement contractors most need work for their crews.

It is less worth it if you are in a heavily gas-heat area and only want to sell heat-pump-only systems. In that case, lead with full system replacement and offer the heat pump inside the estimate.

We take one HVAC contractor per service line per metro area, first come. We are based in Sydney, Australia, work US business hours remotely, and run everything in your own ad accounts and CRM. The full system is on our AC replacement leads page. For the install side of the same system, see how to get more central AC installation leads.

Alan

Co-founder. Onboarding and client operations

Alan runs onboarding and the day-to-day of every account: the CRM, the booking flow, the follow-up and the Friday report.

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